Analysis of Local Government Budget Allocation Policy on Human Development Index Improvement in Mimika Regency

Purpose: This study examines how budget allocations for health, education, and living standards influence the Human Development Index (HDI) in Mimika Regency during 2014–2024, both partially and simultaneously, and evaluates the quality of budget management implementation in the field.

Research Methodology: A quantitative time-series approach (2014–2024) was used with APBD and HDI data from Mimika Regency. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with log transformation in SPSS and classical assumption tests. Qualitative insights were added through interviews with key local government officials.

Results: Partially, health and education budget allocations have positive but insignificant effects on HDI, while living standards allocation shows a negative and insignificant effect. Simultaneously, all three variables are not statistically significant (F sig > 0.05), with the model explaining 31.45% of HDI variation, while the remaining 68.55% is influenced by external factors such as the mining sector and regional inflation.

Conclusions: Regional budget expenditure in Mimika Regency is not an effective primary driver of human development. The transmission of budget allocations to HDI outcomes is obstructed by extreme geographic logistics costs, structural human resource deficits in remote education and health services, and a policy framework dominated by reactive, charitable social spending rather than productive labor-intensive economic empowerment programs.

Limitations: The study covers only an 11-year time-series period, which may be insufficient to capture the full time-lag effects of health and education investment on economic growth. The model does not incorporate sector-specific macro variables such as mining output fluctuations, regional inflation rates, and private investment levels, which account for the unexplained 68.55% of HDI variance.

Contributions: This study contributes empirical evidence on the fiscal-HDI transmission failure in a resource-rich but institutionally constrained Indonesian regency context, advances the resource curse literature with original regression evidence from the Papua region, and provides specific actionable fiscal policy recommendations for transforming Mimika’s budget management from reactive to productive.